Table 1 China’s Human Resources in Science and Technology
(1,000 persons; 1,000 person-years)
|
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 | ||||||
|
Human resources in S&T |
n.a. |
32000 |
33800 |
36600 |
38500 |
n.a. | |||||
|
Professionals |
29043 |
28874 |
28477 |
28344 |
27746 |
27504 | |||||
|
Scientific personnel |
2905.6 |
3223.5 |
3140.1 |
3221.8 |
3284 |
3481.4 | |||||
|
S&Es in scientific activities |
1594.6 |
2045.9 |
2071.5 |
2172 |
2254.7 |
2252 | |||||
|
R&D personnel |
821.7 |
922.1 |
956.5 |
1035.1 |
1090.5 |
1152.6 | |||||
|
S&Es in R&D activities |
531.1 |
695.1 |
742.7 |
810.5 |
862.1 |
926.2 | |||||
Source: National Bureau of Statistics and Ministry of Science and Technology (comp.), China Statistical Yearbook on Science and Technology (Beijing: China Statistics Press, various years).
Table 2 Total Enrollments of Higher Education in China (1,000 Persons)
|
Year |
Undergraduate * |
Graduate |
|
1991 |
2,044 |
88 |
|
1992 |
2,184 |
94 |
|
1993 |
2,536 |
107 |
|
1994 |
2,799 |
128 |
|
1995 |
2,906 |
145 |
|
1996 |
3,021 |
163 |
|
1997 |
3,174 |
176 |
|
1998 |
3,409 |
199 |
|
1999 |
4,086 |
234 |
|
2000 |
5,561 |
301 |
|
2001 |
7,191 |
393 |
|
2002 |
9,034 |
501 |
|
2003 |
11,086 |
651 |
|
2004 |
13,335 |
820 |
* Enrollment in regular institutions of higher education only.
Source: Department of Development & Planning, Ministry of Education (comp.), Educational Statistical Yearbook of China (Beijing: People’s Education Press, various years).
Table 3 Forecast of the Demand and Supply of Scientists and Engineers in China
(1,000 Persons)
|
Year |
Supply |
Demand |
Shortage or Oversupply vs. Most likely | ||||||
|
Most likely |
Lower |
Higher | |||||||
|
2005 |
2377 |
2642 |
2428 |
2793 |
-265 | ||||
|
2006 |
2533 |
2853 |
2493 |
3240 |
-320 | ||||
|
2007 |
2721 |
3077 |
2565 |
3712 |
-356 | ||||
|
2008 |
2940 |
3316 |
2645 |
4211 |
-376 | ||||
|
2009 |
3193 |
3573 |
2732 |
4740 |
-380 | ||||
|
2010 |
3480 |
3850 |
2828 |
5301 |
-369 | ||||
|
2011 |
3803 | ||||||||
|
2012 |
4162 | ||||||||
|
2013 |
4561 | ||||||||
|
2014 |
5000 | ||||||||
|
2015 |
5480 |
5955 |
4259 |
6856 |
-476 | ||||
|
2016 |
6002 | ||||||||
|
2017 |
6569 | ||||||||
|
2018 |
7180 | ||||||||
|
2019 |
7837 | ||||||||
|
2020 |
8541 |
8863 |
5104 |
11160 |
-322 | ||||
Source: China Talent Pool projection.
Figure 1 China’s Population Change by Age Groups
Source: Based on China’s population growth projection by the United Nations Population Division (2005). 02040608010012014019891992199519982001200420072010201320162019YearPopulation (100 million)18-22 (prospect college students)55-60 (ready for retirement)
Figure 2 Analytical Models and Variables Variables used in the modeling process Intervening variablesIntervening variablesDependent variablesDependent variablesIndependent variablesIndependent variablesS&T wage/average wageS&T expenditureFDI utilizedHigh-Tech exportGIOV-IT/GIOVEducational expenditureInvestment in fixed assetsHigh-Tech export/total exportHigh-Tech trade/total tradeMarket composition & maturityImport & Export by RegionImport & Export by fieldUrban population/total populationS&E enrollment/total enrollmentS&E graduating studentsS&EsR&D FTE S&Es18-22 populationS&E enrollment55-60 population16-60 populationMale/female populationDemographic influence